The proposed expansion of Heathrow Airport (LHR), which includes a third runway and new terminal, is proposed to accommodate a forecasted doubling of passenger movements, a significant number of additional staff trips, and an increase freight traffic. As a result, the creation of indirect jobs and induced activity over a wide part of London is anticipated to create increased transport pressures.
Steer undertook an independent analytical study to assess the surface access transport impacts of a potential LHR expansion.
Our work evaluated the surface transport impacts of LHR expansion under a range of scenarios. We assessed the implications of expansion on the highway and public transport networks under a ‘Do Minimum’ case. We also evaluated the effectiveness of a range of public transport and highway interventions in achieving the modal shift towards public transport and ameliorating crowding and congestion.
We developed a bespoke Airport Surface Access Mode Choice Models for passengers and staff. The base models were validated against observed data, and the base and forecast year models utilised travel costs from Transport for London’s highway and public transport network models (for given scenarios).
A multi-step approach was adopted to forecast the overall demand for Heathrow Airport by each mode, and overall mode shares. The forecasted airport-related trips were then modelled in detail using the established Transport for London Railplan (public transport) and WeLHAM (highway) models to assess the impact on public transport demand/crowding and highway network performance respectively.
Successes and outcomes
Our analysis informed Transport for London’s position on surface access, including its response the Airports National Policy Statement and its evidence to the Parliamentary Select Committee on Airport Expansion.
Our work informed Transport for London’s understanding of the potential requirements for additional infrastructure and travel demand management strategies. Our forecasts for future traffic levels and highway network performance also informed Transport for London’s assessment of the air quality impacts related to expansion.
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