Whatcom County is evaluating ferry services to Lummi Island, including service alternatives and vessel replacement into the future. The objective of this project was to decide on a new vessel, service level and planning relating to the landings, while meeting the County’s objectives of balancing operating costs, affordability and service.
How we helped
Steer was tasked with developing a demand model of ferry ridership including pedestrians, vehicles and commercial vehicles to establish projections through 2040.
An econometric demand model was developed based on Lummi Island demographic data. Population data at Census tract level for various ages was used due to the residential nature of Lummi Island. The team developed a demographic forecasting model for future projections of population requiring age-level detail. This was particularly important given the changing demographic structure of the Island and its rapidly aging population.
Successes and outcomes
We provided demand forecasts through 2040 to help inform the evaluation of a new vessel choice and service levels.